Investor and author Ray Dalio studied the past 500 years and describes the typical lifecycle of a superpower’s rise and decline in his book: “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.” Dalio claims that the start of a new era often heralds a period of peace, prosperity and productive debt growth. A prolonged period of economic prosperity and confidence results in increased borrowing which eventually leads to a bubble. As bubbles burst, inflation surges, inequalities rise and internal conflicts assume, we witness revolutions to redistribute wealth that can be either peaceful or violent. Towards the latter stages in the cycle, the leading empire becomes less powerful relative to rivals, and the deteriorating economic conditions and disagreements between powers typically results in some kind of conflict.

The world enters 2023 in the wake of the significant instability. The international economic order is under significant stress: inflationary pressures have led central banks to raise interest rates and the prospects for global growth have dampened as recession risk looms large over developed economies. Against this backdrop, the shift to “glocalisation” is accelerating. The cross-border economic integration that multilateral institutions have fostered since World War II is being weakened by a multi-local world. Investors and businesses are adjusting to new normal where national governments seek to priorities local communities, companies and industries amidst rising geopolitical tensions and strained US-China relations.

The next decade is being increasingly viewed as a decisive period as the balance of power shifts from west to east. The nineteenth century, with the arrival of the Industrial Revolution, was driven by Europe. The twentieth century gave rise to the United States of America as “The American Century” and the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The twenty-first century, meanwhile, is emerging as “The Asian Age” – a defining moment in which Asia reclaims its position as the engine for global growth and China prepares to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy.

With heighted geopolitical risk at the top of the CEO agenda, according to a recent McKinsey survey, the 2023 MASIC Annual Investment Forum will (a) examine how geography has shaped and continues to influence the world’s economy and superpowers; (b) the implications of a future international economic order dominated by Asia; and (c) consider the impact of new systems, rules and alliances on the investor community and the global economy at large.